Our scientists have developed an innovative model capable of reproducing meteotsunamis recorded in the Mediterranean Sea!
Meteotsunamis are sudden and powerful sea level oscillations triggered by atmospheric disturbances, which can generate strong waves and cause flooding in populated coastal bays.
In a paper published in the scientific journal Weather and Climate Extremes, a research team led by Dr. Petra Zemunik Selak from our Institute presented a so-called synoptic model that analyzes specific atmospheric conditions and, based on them, can reconstruct when and where meteotsunamis occurred. The model achieved the best results in the eastern Adriatic, where the predictions were the most accurate.
To ensure the reliability of the results, the researchers used data from 32 tide gauge stations across the Mediterranean, including high-resolution sea-level records (1-minute intervals) from the MISELA database (Minute Sea-Level Analysis). The model incorporates a combination of seven atmospheric variables derived from ERA5 reanalysis data to calculate the so-called synoptic index. It was trained on a subset of the data and subsequently tested on another portion of the time series to evaluate its effectiveness in detecting extreme events. Numerous additional sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the model’s robustness under varying conditions, including different spatial and temporal resolutions and incomplete datasets.
This approach holds significant potential for the development of early warning systems for meteotsunamis, as well as for climate projections of extreme marine events, which is crucial for coastal planning and protection.
This research was carried out with the support of the KLIMADRIA project, funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU, as well as the Croatian Science Foundation projects GLOMETS and C3PO, and the Horizon Europe project ChEESE-2P.
